Uncertainty Evaluation in Reservoir Forecasting by Bayes Linear Methodology
نویسندگان
چکیده
We propose application of Bayes linear methodology to uncertainty evaluation in reservoir forecasting. On the basis of this statistical model, effective emulators are constructed. The resulting statistical method is illustrated by application to a commonly used test case scenario, called PUNQS [11]. A statistical data analysis of different output responses is performed. Responses obtained from our emulator are compared with both true responses and with responses obtained using the response surface methodology (RSM), the basic method used by leading commercial software packages.
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